Saturday, July 26, 2008

I enjoyed the Glasgow East By-election

For someone who believes in the United Kingdom and therefore is a unionist (without any party affiliation), the fact that I enjoyed an SNP victory would indicate a masochistic streak. Actually if I had been an elector in Glasgow East, I would have probably cast my vote for the SNP as they were the only party likely to give the Governemt the 'shock' it needed!

I stayed up to watch the result and when after a recount the SNP won, I did go to bed with a wry grin on my face.

It appears every analyst, political commentator and 'man in the pub' has a view on why the SNP Won. so I don't see why I shoudn't add my 'two pennyworth':

  • This was the 'Mother' of all protest votes. Traditionally a Labour Stronghold, people had just had enough and wanted to give the Government a 'good kicking' and remind them that East Glasgow has problems that need to be tackled and despite some progress, not significant when spread over the 11 years of Labour Government
  • The SNP ran an excellent Campaign (admittedly by bringing in activists from outside), whilst the Labour Party didn't. Labour was permanently on the back foot.
  • Whilst the Conservatives were an extremely poor third, they did win some respect for bringing David Cameron to the constituency. As for the Lib Dems well perhaps they viewed this one as a lost cause and didn't try too hard.
What will happen next?
  • Received wisdom is that come the next General Election Labour will win the seat back. Actually I think that whilst this is probable, a lot will depend on the new SNP MP John Mason. If he can hold his Nationalist rhetoric in check and put all his engeries in to being a constituency MP he may win sufficient hearts and minds to scrape in.
  • Will this topple Grodon Brown. No! Tony Blair handed Gordon a chalice in which there was a quite a lot of of hemlock. Due to a myriad of factors this has turned into a cocktail of poisons, so much in fact that the Chalice is overflowing. However much Labour MPs plot and plan (which it appears is about all they do when at Westminster), and however much Gordon Brown's personal ratings fall, he is the only Labour Politician capable of being Prime Minister, which is a sad reflection as much on British Politics in general as the Labour Party in particular.
  • Will there be an early General Election? I suspect this would be one of David Cameron's nightmares, as if one was called soon he might win. This would mean he would inherit some extremely serious problems that would require making very unpopular decisions. Gordon Brown believes he can weather the current problems and still have enough time to insert enough 'feel good' factors before he has to call an election. The problem for Gordon and Labour is even if they do 'turn things round' David still might win.
  • Staying with the Conservatives, whilst the campaign in Glasgow East didn't produce anything of significance in the ballot box, it did win some respect. Maybe this is the time to start a Hearts and Minds push into Scottish constituencies. It took a generation for the Conservative vote in Scotland to collapse, now is the time to start the slow process of winning it back,
  • The Lib Dems. I was disappointed in the campaign they ran and prior to the start of the hustings I assumed they would make third with a slight increase in votes. They didn't and I think they should be very concerned about this
Winner and Main Loser:

John Mason:

Whilst I am virulently against his Scottish Nationalist agenda, I am beginning to respect the man. Firstly because he has had a real world career outside of politics. He has not played up, or down the fact he is a practising Christian and a Protestant to boot. Whilst I do not agree with many of his views on matters outside the Nationalist Agenda, I do respect that these are sincerely held and that so far he has shown himself to be a man of integrity.I really hope he puts his energies into serving the people of Glasgow East, because what they really need is a constituency MP who will work tirelessly for them, not someone who see them as a stepping stone to furthering their political Career.

Margaret Curran - Labour Candidate:
Whilst she has done Community Work, Margaret Curran is a Career Politician. Enough said!


The Cheshire Cat:
As those of you you follow this blog (and there are a few, a very few), will know I am not only against his Nationalist Agenda, but I dislike Alex Salmond the man.
As the Campaign for Glasgow East built up, the Smug expression, Alex often displays on Camera became more and more pronounced, until it reached the point where like the Cheshire Cats smile, only the Smug Expression remained. Unfortunately the man behind the expression will re-materialise.

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